Global HF (Ionospheric Map)

Friday, January 29, 2010

29 jan :From the Space Weather Prediction Center

Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low for the next three days (29-31 January) with only a slight chance for a C-class flare from Region 1041.


Sunspot 1041 remains the only numbered region on the face of the sun. The solar X-Rays continue to be quiet and the solar flux has dipped back down to 76.

Friday, January 22, 2010

Tips to predic opening propagation.

Regarding from my QSO with 9m2get, many tips we can use to predic the opening propagation. Mostly for 10m.

Beside can hear from another station dxing and popping, also from solar teresterial data.

It's not garranty 100% opening band. Sometime it so hopeless.

So after 3 year chassing the solar flux...now the is the true for us how to predic opening propagation...

Solar Flare Classifications!
Read below
Solar flares are classified as A, B, C, M or X according to the peak flux (in watts per square meter, W/m2) of 100 to 800 picometer X-rays near Earth, as measured on the GOES spacecraft. Each class has a peak flux ten times greater than the preceding one, with X class flares having a peak flux of order 10-4 W/m2. Within a class there is a linear scale from 1 to 9, so an X2 flare is twice as powerful as an X1 flare, and is four times more powerful than an M5 flare. The more powerful M and X class flares are often associated with a variety of effects on the near-Earth space environment. Although the GOES classification is commonly used to indicate the size of a flare, it is only one measure.


See the pic that i circle it. What i see is, when the X-Ray show A,B,C...so much popping but no opening propagation. But if it go to M flare...hear what happen....

How about X? The X flare does not happen until the flare up to 100. So we wait for it.

Then the Mega Flare. What can i tell you. Mostly 24 hour band will be open....
















Then i put is on my site for your preference.





About the Solar X-ray status monitor

The X-ray Solar status monitor downloads data periodically from the NOAA Space Environment Center FTP server. The previous 24 hours of 5 minute Long-wavelength X-ray data from each satellite (GOES 8 and GOES 10) is analyzed, and an appropriate level of activity for the past 24 hours is assigned as follows:

Status

Normal: Solar X-ray flux is quiet (< 1.00e-6 W/m^2)


Status

Active: Solar X-ray flux is active (>= 1.00e-6 W/m^2)


Status

M Class Flare: An M Class flare has occurred (X-ray flux >= 1.00e-5 W/m^2)


Status

X Class Flare: An X Class flare has occurred (X-ray flux >= 1.00e-4 W/m^2)

Status

Mega Flare: An unprecedented X-ray event has occurred (X-ray flux >= 1.00e-3 W/m^2)
The designation "Mega Flare" was chosen by Kevin Loch when the status monitor was created on March 4, 1999.
There is no "official" designation for flares in this range.






About the Geomagnetic Field status monitor

The Geomagnetic Field status monitor downloads data periodically from the NOAA Space Environment Center FTP server. The previous 24 hours of 3 hour Planetary Kp Index data is analyzed and an appropriate level of activity for the past 24 hours is assigned as follows:

Status

Quiet: the Geomagnetic Field is quiet (Kp < 4)


Status

Active: the Geomagnetic Field has been unsettled (Kp=4)

Status

Storm: A Geomagnetic Storm has occurred (Kp>4)


Maybe this can be help us all to be more patient on propagation. Data will always update. Hopefully we not only 100% base on the flux and ssn number. This x-ray and geomagnetic data also important.

Good dx and be a 100% loyalty on 10 meter dxer...73

Thursday, January 21, 2010

NOAA Scientist Finds Clue to Predicting Solar Flares



 

For decades, experts have searched for signs in the sun that could lead to more accurate forecasts of solar flares — powerful blasts of energy that can supercharge Earth’s upper atmosphere and disrupt satellites and the land-based technologies on which modern societies depend. Now a scientist at NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center and her colleagues have found a technique for predicting solar flares two to three days in advance with unprecedented accuracy.
The long-sought clue to prediction lies in changes in twisting magnetic fields beneath the surface of the sun in the days leading up to a flare, according to the authors. The findings will be published in Astrophysical Journal Letters next month.
 “For the first time, we can tell two to three days in advance when and where a solar flare will occur and how large it will be,” said lead author Alysha Reinard, a solar physicist at NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center and the Cooperative Institute for Research in the Environmental Sciences, a partnership between NOAA and the University of Colorado.

The new technique is already twice as accurate as current methods, according to the authors, and that number is expected to improve as they refine their work over the next few years. With this technique, reliable watches and warnings should be possible before the next solar sunspot maximum, predicted to occur in 2013. Currently, forecasters see complex sunspot regions and issue alerts that a large flare may erupt, but the when-and-where eludes them.
 Solar flares are sudden bursts of energy and light from sunspots’ magnetic fields. During a flare, photons travel at the speed of light in all directions through space, arriving at Earth’s upper atmosphere—93 million miles from the sun—in just eight minutes.
 Almost instantly the photons can affect the high-orbiting satellites of the Global Positioning System, or GPS, creating timing delays and skewing positioning signals by as much as half a football field, risking high-precision agriculture, oil drilling, military and airline operations, financial transactions, navigation, disaster warnings, and other critical functions relying on GPS accuracy.
“Two or three days lead time can make the difference between safeguarding the advanced technologies we depend on every day for our livelihood and security, and the catastrophic loss of these capabilities and trillions of dollars in disrupted commerce,” said Thomas Bogdan, director of NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center.
 Reinard and NOAA intern Justin Henthorn of Ohio University pored over detailed maps of more than 1,000 sunspot groups, called active regions. The maps were constructed from solar sound-wave data from the National Science Foundation’s Global Oscillation Network Group.
 Reinard and Henthorn found the same pattern in region after region: magnetic twisting that tightened to the breaking point, burst into a large flare, and vanished. They established that the pattern could be used as a reliable tool for predicting a solar flare.
 “These recurring motions of the magnetic field, playing out unseen beneath the solar surface, are the clue we’ve needed to know that a large flare is coming—and when,” said Reinard.
 Rudi Komm and Frank Hill of the National Solar Observatory contributed to the research.
NOAA understands and predicts changes in the Earth's environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and conserves and manages our coastal and marine resources. Visit us on Facebook.
 Note to Editors: The paper has been accepted for publication in Astrophysical Journal Letters in February: “Evidence that temporal changes in solar subsurface helicity precede active region flaring,” by Alysha Reinard, Justin Henthorn, Rudi Komm, and Frank Hill.


Wednesday, January 20, 2010

Why band not open when high Flare?

From my opinion, when the flare on the top of the sun don't give us any change for band to open. So back to the basic that flare must straight to earth.

Today the M Flare was show on Sun. It's call M2.3 Solar Flare / Eastern Limb.


So it's good on local band. With my QRP mode today, the performance so nice. Also with my new setup Delta Loop Antenna.

Thanks to 9w2knz, 9w2vvh, 9w2rzl and 9w2tz for the signal.

Sadly my phone was out of power. So i cannot record.

Wait for this condition again. Hopefully i can more QRP and decrease to 0.3 watts someday.

73

Wednesday, January 13, 2010

13th Jan 2010 update


Solar Update - Sunspot 1040 remains a fairly large sunspot group and there remains slight chance for an M-Class flare. The Solar X-Ray Flux background levels are in the B-Class territory and holding steady.
The solar flux reached a daily max of 95.4 on Tuesday and ended with an average of 93 which is yet another new record for Cycle 24.

Sunday, January 10, 2010

10 jan 2010 update

 

 This sunday show ahead stereo that i told 9w2rzl in 2 day ago. Solar Update -Sunspot 1040 showed growth through the day on Saturday and is capable of producing C-Class flares.

Hopefully it will provide more cme impact to us. For good i thinks. Because for the bad condition if CME on high condition, it can cause many thing mostly for our health.

So my lovely DXing fan, prepair for today. Good DX.

Thursday, January 7, 2010

Kenapa QRP?


Pada suatu petang saya tengah membuat CQ di 10 meter. Hampir 6 tahun tidak kedengaran audio beliau. 9m2di atau dikenali sebagi Cikgu Danial.

Signal saya terima 5/9. Apabila ditanya, beliau hanya menghantar dalam 3 watts. Saya berasa amat terkejut. Walaupun hampir 12 tahun dalam bidang radio tapi ini benda yang ajaib bagi saya.

Terasa dengan tercabarnya saya apabila kita dengan 50 watts pada ketika itu..akhirnya saya nekad untuk bermain dan mencuba dalam QRP di 10 meter.

Beliaulah inspirasi saya hingga kini untuk terus dalam QRP mode. Terima kasih CIkgu Danial. Tanpa anda sedar anda telah memberi dorongan kepada saya dalam bidang Radio Amatur ini.

73

p/s : sayangnya akibat terlalu gembira saya tidak mencatat dalam log book. Apa pun ia tetap segar dalam ingatan

Wednesday, January 6, 2010

6 jan 2010 just prepair!


This stereo behind captured as per image. Hopefully this will come with big CME.  No report for this condition today and today they decline as low level sun activity.

Up coming my homebrew antenna

This inspiration came from my old friend 9w2in. Some one who got about 3000+ QSL card on 6 month DX.

Like you can see, the pattern diagram is very selective, with noteable front-to-back performance around 27db . The vertical diagram pattern with the antenna at 8 meters height, presents the elevation peak at 18° with 12,14 dbi and 5,14dbi at 5°.


















 It's also can work on vertical condition.

By the way, there is the comparisons between the other antenna

3Yagi Elements  3, Gain dBi  8.25 , F/B 180 24.80, Ro 21.9
 
3Quad  Elements 3, Gain, dBi 9.32 , F/B 180 23.21, Ro 44.5
 
My Upcoming Hombrew Elements 3, Gain, dBi 7.15, F/B 180 26,5, Ro 49.5
 
Most importantly, this antenna veri light and suitable for portable DXing.
 
Supprise ha...heheh..so wait for the pattern and the photo. This antenna was
very successful on 11 meter by year 2000. So i'll just make it to 10 meter.
 
 
73. 

Up coming my homebrew antenna

Tuesday, January 5, 2010

2010 New year with my homebrew delta loop






This opening new year, my homebrew project already done. With with my new homw q, and limited space..this what i can do.

Create a wall bracket and mount at the top of my home. Actually it's not a new design. But it's new for me to make a delta loop bracket like this.

On this season (tengkujuh) very high windy. So this bracket may be can solve the problem. New dx will on the air, and importantly with QRP mode.

73