Tips to predic opening propagation.

Regarding from my QSO with 9m2get, many tips we can use to predic the opening propagation. Mostly for 10m.

Beside can hear from another station dxing and popping, also from solar teresterial data.

It's not garranty 100% opening band. Sometime it so hopeless.

So after 3 year chassing the solar flux...now the is the true for us how to predic opening propagation...

Solar Flare Classifications!
Read below
Solar flares are classified as A, B, C, M or X according to the peak flux (in watts per square meter, W/m2) of 100 to 800 picometer X-rays near Earth, as measured on the GOES spacecraft. Each class has a peak flux ten times greater than the preceding one, with X class flares having a peak flux of order 10-4 W/m2. Within a class there is a linear scale from 1 to 9, so an X2 flare is twice as powerful as an X1 flare, and is four times more powerful than an M5 flare. The more powerful M and X class flares are often associated with a variety of effects on the near-Earth space environment. Although the GOES classification is commonly used to indicate the size of a flare, it is only one measure.

See the pic that i circle it. What i see is, when the X-Ray show A,B,C...so much popping but no opening propagation. But if it go to M flare...hear what happen....

How about X? The X flare does not happen until the flare up to 100. So we wait for it.

Then the Mega Flare. What can i tell you. Mostly 24 hour band will be open....

Then i put is on my site for your preference.

About the Solar X-ray status monitor

The X-ray Solar status monitor downloads data periodically from the NOAA Space Environment Center FTP server. The previous 24 hours of 5 minute Long-wavelength X-ray data from each satellite (GOES 8 and GOES 10) is analyzed, and an appropriate level of activity for the past 24 hours is assigned as follows:

Normal: Solar X-ray flux is quiet (< 1.00e-6 W/m^2)

Active: Solar X-ray flux is active (>= 1.00e-6 W/m^2)

M Class Flare: An M Class flare has occurred (X-ray flux >= 1.00e-5 W/m^2)

X Class Flare: An X Class flare has occurred (X-ray flux >= 1.00e-4 W/m^2)

Mega Flare: An unprecedented X-ray event has occurred (X-ray flux >= 1.00e-3 W/m^2) The designation "Mega Flare" was chosen by Kevin Loch when the status monitor was created on March 4, 1999. There is no "official" designation for flares in this range.

About the Geomagnetic Field status monitor

The Geomagnetic Field status monitor downloads data periodically from the NOAA Space Environment Center FTP server. The previous 24 hours of 3 hour Planetary Kp Index data is analyzed and an appropriate level of activity for the past 24 hours is assigned as follows:

Quiet: the Geomagnetic Field is quiet (Kp < 4)

Active: the Geomagnetic Field has been unsettled (Kp=4)

Storm: A Geomagnetic Storm has occurred (Kp>4)

Maybe this can be help us all to be more patient on propagation. Data will always update. Hopefully we not only 100% base on the flux and ssn number. This x-ray and geomagnetic data also important.

Good dx and be a 100% loyalty on 10 meter dxer...73