Beside can hear from another station dxing and popping, also from solar teresterial data.
It's not garranty 100% opening band. Sometime it so hopeless.
So after 3 year chassing the solar flux...now the is the true for us how to predic opening propagation...
Solar Flare Classifications!
Solar flares are classified as A, B, C, M or X according to the peak flux (in watts per square meter, W/m2) of 100 to 800 picometer X-rays near Earth, as measured on the GOES spacecraft. Each class has a peak flux ten times greater than the preceding one, with X class flares having a peak flux of order 10-4 W/m2. Within a class there is a linear scale from 1 to 9, so an X2 flare is twice as powerful as an X1 flare, and is four times more powerful than an M5 flare. The more powerful M and X class flares are often associated with a variety of effects on the near-Earth space environment. Although the GOES classification is commonly used to indicate the size of a flare, it is only one measure.
How about X? The X flare does not happen until the flare up to 100. So we wait for it.
Then the Mega Flare. What can i tell you. Mostly 24 hour band will be open....
About the Solar X-ray status monitorThe X-ray Solar status monitor downloads data periodically from the NOAA Space Environment Center FTP server. The previous 24 hours of 5 minute Long-wavelength X-ray data from each satellite (GOES 8 and GOES 10) is analyzed, and an appropriate level of activity for the past 24 hours is assigned as follows:
|Normal: Solar X-ray flux is quiet (< 1.00e-6 W/m^2) |
|Active: Solar X-ray flux is active (>= 1.00e-6 W/m^2) |
|M Class Flare: An M Class flare has occurred (X-ray flux >= 1.00e-5 W/m^2) |
|X Class Flare: An X Class flare has occurred (X-ray flux >= 1.00e-4 W/m^2) |
About the Geomagnetic Field status monitorThe Geomagnetic Field status monitor downloads data periodically from the NOAA Space Environment Center FTP server. The previous 24 hours of 3 hour Planetary Kp Index data is analyzed and an appropriate level of activity for the past 24 hours is assigned as follows:
|Quiet: the Geomagnetic Field is quiet (Kp < 4) |
|Active: the Geomagnetic Field has been unsettled (Kp=4) |
|Storm: A Geomagnetic Storm has occurred (Kp>4) |
Maybe this can be help us all to be more patient on propagation. Data will always update. Hopefully we not only 100% base on the flux and ssn number. This x-ray and geomagnetic data also important.
Good dx and be a 100% loyalty on 10 meter dxer...73